VEON Ltd ADR Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryTelecom Services Beta (adjusted)1.39 Intrinsic Value $106.94median of 6 methods · middle span $32-$172based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $73.93Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.1B Enterprise Value $6.5B Shares Outstanding 68.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Feb 2020 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary VEON Ltd. is successfully executing a structural pivot from a legacy telecommunications provider to a high-growth, asset-light digital operator. By divesting its Russian operations and focusing on high-growth frontier markets (Pakistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, and Uzbekistan), VEON has unlocked significant value. Direct digital services, particularly fintech engines like JazzCash in Pakistan, are driving ARPU expansion and diversifying revenue streams. Despite operating in volatile geopolitical and macroeconomic environments, VEON's proactive balance sheet management—highlighted by the recent refinancing of USD 1.4 billion in bonds—substantially mitigates near-term debt risks. The stock trades at a steep discount to emerging market telecom peers, presenting a compelling margin of safety and substantial upside potential. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$70.00 Mean target$83.59 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Severe currency devaluations in Pakistan and Kazakhstan erode USD-reported financial results despite strong local currency performance. Escalated geopolitical conflict in Ukraine causes severe damage to Kyivstar's infrastructure, requiring heavy capital reinvestment and depressing Group free cash flow. Regulatory headwinds in fintech or digital banking restrict the growth of JazzCash. Base CaseCentral scenario VEON continues to deliver double-digit local currency growth, supported by the migration of users from 2G/3G to 4G and the scaling of digital financial services. Direct digital revenues steadily rise toward the company's long-term target of 50% of total revenue. Proactive liability management keeps interest expenses manageable, and the company successfully returns capital to shareholders under its USD 100 million annual buyback framework. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |