Venture Global Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Venture Global Inc

VGNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Midstream

Beta (adjusted)0.44

Intrinsic Value $26.56median of 6 methods · middle span $12-$49based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $12.64Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 110% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+110%)

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Market Cap $31.6B

Enterprise Value $70.3B

Shares Outstanding 2.5B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Venture Global entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter exports reached 127 cargos, first-half exports reached 257 cargos, 91% of available 2026 cargos were contracted, and full-year cargo guidance was tightened to 500-518. The principal near-term execution test is achieving Plaquemines Phase 1 commercial operation in Q4 2026, while CP2 remains scheduled for first LNG in the second half of 2027. CP2's completed Phase 2 financing and substantial long-term contracting support the expansion case, but construction, commissioning, commodity-spread, regulatory, and dispute risks remain material.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$13.00

Mean target$16.42

High · most bullish analyst$22.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$13.0022%

Plaquemines commissioning extends beyond 2026 or annual exports fall below 500 cargos, weakening confidence in the production ramp and downstream project schedules. Lower liquefaction fees on remaining unsold cargos, construction or regulatory setbacks, contractor underperformance, or adverse dispute outcomes could further impair execution.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$16.4258%

Matches the consensus mean

Exports remain within the company's 500-518 cargo outlook, Plaquemines Phase 1 reaches commercial operation around the targeted Q4 2026 window, and CP2 construction advances toward second-half 2027 first LNG without a major schedule reset.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$22.0020%

Plaquemines Phase 1 reaches commercial operation during Q4 2026, exports finish within or above the 500-518 cargo outlook, and CP2 continues on schedule toward second-half 2027 first LNG. High 2026 contracted-cargo coverage and CP2's completed financing reduce near-term commercial and funding uncertainty, while the modular operating model sustains high availability.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-half 2026 exports reached 257 cargos, including 127 in the second quarter, while LNG volumes sold increased 42% year over year in Q2.
The company reported that 91% of available 2026 cargos were contracted and tightened full-year export guidance to 500-518 cargos.
CP2 Phase 2 reached final investment decision with $8.6 billion of project financing, bringing total CP2 financing to $20.7 billion; the company reported nearly all CP2 nameplate capacity as contracted.

Key Investment Risks

Plaquemines Phase 1 remained in final construction, commissioning, and assurance testing as of the latest results, making the targeted Q4 2026 commercial-operation date a critical execution milestone.
Guidance remains exposed to LNG and natural-gas market spreads: the company assumed a $12.50-$13.50/MMBtu liquefaction fee for remaining unsold 2026 cargos and disclosed sensitivity to changes in that fee.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.