Valmont Industries Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Valmont Industries Inc

VMINYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryConglomerates

Beta (adjusted)1.23

Intrinsic Value $609.47median of 6 methods · middle span $309-$737based on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $462.98Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $8.9B

Enterprise Value $9.5B

Shares Outstanding 19.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend25 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Valmont entered the second half of 2026 with raised sales and EPS guidance, strong North America Utility and Coatings demand, higher operating profitability and approximately $1.67 billion of backlog. These strengths are offset by materially weaker Agriculture sales, Middle East disruption, moderating telecommunications carrier spending and exposure to steel, tariff and foreign-exchange changes.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$600.00

Mean target$624.50

High · most bullish analyst$678.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$600.0020%

Agriculture and telecommunications weakness persists while Middle East disruption, steel inflation, tariffs or adverse currency movements undermine volumes and margins. Under this case, full-year sales or EPS fall below management's guidance floors.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$624.5055%

Matches the consensus mean

Valmont delivers within its raised 2026 guidance as Infrastructure growth and pricing offset continued Agriculture softness. The case assumes net sales of $4.3 billion-$4.45 billion and diluted EPS of $22.25-$23.50, with capital expenditures remaining within $170 million-$200 million.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$678.0025%

Infrastructure demand remains stronger than the raised outlook, Utility capacity investments convert backlog into sales, pricing continues to offset input costs and Agriculture begins recovering. This would support results near or above the upper ends of the 2026 sales and EPS ranges.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter net sales increased 6.5% to $1.119 billion, diluted EPS reached $6.14 and operating margin was 14.8%, compared with an adjusted 13.5% in the prior-year quarter.
Infrastructure sales increased 14.8%, including 33.9% growth in North America Utility and 16.6% growth in North America Coatings.
Total backlog was $1.6749 billion at June 27, 2026, while the reported leverage ratio was 0.93 and second-quarter operating cash flow was $148.1 million.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter Agriculture sales declined 15.8%, including a 28.9% international decline attributed primarily to disruption from the Middle East conflict.
North America Telecommunications volumes declined as carrier spending moderated.
Management's outlook depends on steel futures, foreign-exchange rates and the tariff environment prevailing in July 2026; adverse changes could pressure guidance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.