Valley National Bancorp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Valley National Bancorp

VLYNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryBanks - Regional

Beta (adjusted)1.02

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $12.62Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $7B

Enterprise Value $6.4B

Shares Outstanding 558.4M diluted

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a mid-cap regional bank successfully navigating the post-2023 banking landscape. The bank is driving positive operating leverage through disciplined expense control and strategic technology investments, particularly in artificial intelligence. VLY's net interest margin has stabilized at 3.17% as it successfully replaces high-cost brokered deposits with lower-cost core commercial and online deposits. With a strong capital position (CET1 at the high end of its 10.5%-11.0% target) and improving credit quality, the bank is well-positioned to deliver sustainable earnings growth and capital returns through stock buybacks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets15 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$15.00

Mean target$16.73

High · most bullish analyst$18.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

A severe economic downturn or prolonged high-interest-rate environment leads to a deterioration in credit quality, particularly within the commercial real estate (CRE) portfolio. Higher-than-expected loan charge-offs and increased provisioning drag down profitability, while deposit competition limits net interest margin expansion.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The bank successfully executes its core deposit strategy, driving deposit growth toward the high end of its 5% to 7% annual guidance. The efficiency ratio continues to trend downward toward the 50% target by the end of 2026, supported by AI-driven productivity gains. Net interest margin remains stable or expands slightly, and credit quality remains manageable with net charge-offs staying low.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong core deposit growth replacing high-cost brokered deposits, which lowers overall funding costs.
Improving operational efficiency with a clear path toward a 50% efficiency ratio target by the end of 2026.
Robust capital position with CET1 at the high end of the 10.5% to 11.0% target range, supporting organic growth and buybacks.
Early and strategic investments in artificial intelligence to drive associate productivity and enhance client experience.

Key Investment Risks

Concentration in commercial real estate (CRE) lending, which remains sensitive to macroeconomic shifts.
Intense competition for low-cost deposits from both traditional regional banks and digital-first fintechs.
Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, which can impact loan yields and deposit pricing dynamics.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant spike in non-performing loans or net charge-offs within the CRE portfolio.
Failure to sustain core deposit growth, forcing a reliance on higher-cost brokered deposits.
Reversal of the downward trend in the efficiency ratio due to escalating technology or operational costs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.