Valhi Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustrySpecialty Chemicals Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $15.41Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $436.4M Enterprise Value $813.4M Shares Outstanding 28.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Valhi Inc. (NYSE: VHI) operates as a diversified holding company with its primary economic engine tied to the highly cyclical titanium dioxide (TiO2) market through its majority stake in Kronos Worldwide. While the company benefits from stable cash flows in its component products (CompX) and real estate segments, its overall profitability remains heavily pressured by structural headwinds in the global chemical sector. Persistent low-cost competition from Chinese TiO2 manufacturers and high unabsorbed fixed production costs have severely impacted operating margins, leading to a net loss in FY 2025. Although Q1 2026 showed early signs of price stabilization and strong real estate asset sales, a high debt load and low interest coverage warrant a cautious 'Hold' stance until a sustained recovery in global TiO2 demand and pricing is established. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Chinese TiO2 producers continue to flood global markets with low-priced pigment, preventing any meaningful price recovery for Kronos. High energy and raw material costs persist, while low operating rates continue to result in high unabsorbed fixed production costs. The company's interest cover deteriorates further under its heavy debt load, forcing a reduction in capital expenditures or reliance on expensive affiliate loans. Base CaseCentral scenario The global TiO2 market undergoes a slow, gradual recovery throughout 2026 and 2027. Average selling prices stabilize and rise modestly (2-3% annually) as destocking cycles conclude in Europe and North America. CompX maintains steady profitability, and the real estate segment continues to monetize land parcels opportunistically. Operating margins recover to low single digits, and the company successfully services its debt obligations without requiring major recapitalization. Bull CaseUpside scenario Valhi Inc. trades at a substantial net asset value (NAV) discount of approximately 30% to 36% relative to the market value of its underlying publicly traded subsidiaries, Kronos Worldwide (KRO) and CompX International (CIX). Additionally, the company maintains a strong balance sheet with considerable cash reserves ($6.87 cash per share) and tangible assets, while its chemicals segment stands to benefit from rising titanium dioxide (TiO2) prices. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |