Valero Energy Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $706.01median of 6 methods · middle span $134-$1,979based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $387.61Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 82% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+82%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $111.6B Enterprise Value $112B Shares Outstanding 292M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Valero entered the second half of 2026 with exceptionally strong refining economics, positive contributions from renewable diesel and ethanol, substantial operating cash generation, and an 11% net debt-to-capitalization ratio. Those strengths are substantially reflected in the shares, which closed at $352.36 on August 28, 2026, near the official IR page's $353.00 52-week high. The resulting risk-reward is balanced: continued tight product markets and disciplined cash returns support upside, while normalization of refining margins from the second-quarter peak creates material downside sensitivity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$190.00 Mean target$312.42 High · most bullish analyst$365.00 Street targets sit below today's price; our intrinsic value sits above it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $190.0025% Refining margins normalize toward the second-quarter 2025 level, regulatory and renewable-fuel compliance costs remain elevated, and operational or project setbacks reduce cash available for repurchases. The stock's position near its official 52-week high increases downside if earnings expectations reset. Base CaseCentral scenario $312.4257% Matches the consensus meanRefining margins moderate from the unusually strong second quarter but remain adequate, renewable diesel and ethanol stay profitable, and the balance sheet remains conservative. Bull CaseUpside scenario $365.0018% Sustained transportation-fuel tightness keeps refining margins elevated, renewable-diesel profitability remains strong, and the St. Charles FCC optimization begins operating as planned. Continued cash generation and disciplined shareholder returns support a higher valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |