Vale SA ADR Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryDiversified Metals & Mining Beta (adjusted)0.83 Intrinsic Value $9.77median of 4 methods · middle span $9-$10based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $13.41Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $57.1B Shares Outstanding 4.3B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Vale entered the second half of 2026 with stronger year-over-year sales across iron ore, copper and nickel, pro forma EBITDA of US$4.1 billion and recurring free cash flow of US$1.505 billion in 2Q26. Execution is improving: Serra Sul +20 began operating, copper and nickel guidance ranges were narrowed, and Bacaba advanced ahead of schedule. The offset is higher iron-ore cost pressure from Brazilian-real appreciation, bunker fuel and freight, which led Vale to raise its FY2026 C1 and all-in cost guidance. A Hold stance balances the improving production and project trajectory against commodity sensitivity, rising costs and continuing repair obligations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$12.00 Mean target$16.82 High · most bullish analyst$21.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $12.0020% Iron-ore C1 costs exceed revised guidance, copper or nickel production falls below the narrowed ranges, or capital spending rises above plan. Lower realized commodity prices or project delays would then compress cash generation while repair expenditures remain substantial. Base CaseCentral scenario $16.8250% Matches the consensus meanProduction remains broadly within FY2026 guidance, but iron-ore costs stay near the upper half of the revised range. Serra Sul +20 and Bacaba progress without major disruption, supporting gradual volume and portfolio improvement. Bull CaseUpside scenario $21.0030% Vale delivers within the revised copper and nickel ranges, controls iron-ore C1 costs within guidance and ramps Serra Sul +20 successfully. Strong metals prices and project execution sustain cash generation, while the new buyback and approved distributions increase shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |