VAALCO Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.42 Intrinsic Value $4.05median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $5.66Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $595.4M Enterprise Value $742M Shares Outstanding 104.6M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend22 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary VAALCO Energy offers a compelling small-cap E&P investment case that combines a diversified, cash-generative African production base with a robust shareholder return program. The successful resumption of production at the Baobab field in Côte d'Ivoire in June 2026, following a nine-month FPSO refurbishment, serves as a major near-term catalyst to drive production and cash flow growth. Supported by active organic drilling campaigns in Gabon and Egypt, and a debt-free balance sheet with $48 million in unrestricted cash, VAALCO is well-positioned to sustain its quarterly dividend of $0.0625 per share ($0.25 annualized) while funding its capital programs. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$9.30 Mean target$9.90 High · most bullish analyst$10.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.1715% The bear case is triggered by a sharp decline in global crude oil prices below $60/bbl, operational delays or technical issues in the Baobab field ramp-up, or drilling disappointments in Gabon and Egypt. Additionally, geopolitical and jurisdictional risks inherent to operating in West Africa and Egypt could lead to fiscal regime changes, currency repatriation restrictions, or localized disruptions, putting pressure on the dividend sustainability. Base CaseCentral scenario $8.8060% The base case assumes steady operational execution across Gabon, Egypt, and Côte d'Ivoire, with production volumes aligning with the company's full-year 2026 NRI guidance of 16,100 to 17,950 BOEPD. Brent crude prices remain supportive in the $70-$80 range, allowing VAALCO to comfortably cover its capital expenditures and maintain its $0.25 annualized dividend, supported by its debt-free balance sheet. Bull CaseUpside scenario $10.5025% The bull case is driven by rapid production ramp-up at the Baobab field exceeding expectations, combined with high-impact exploration and development success in Gabon (such as the Ebouri-5H well achieving >8,000 gross BOPD) and Egypt. Stronger-than-expected Brent crude prices would accelerate free cash flow generation, allowing VAALCO to increase shareholder returns through special dividends or share buybacks while aggressively funding the Kossipo field development. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |