V2X Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.47 Intrinsic Value $95.18median of 6 methods · middle span $59-$138based on filings through 3 Jul 2026 Market Price $70.77Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.2B Enterprise Value $3.1B Shares Outstanding 31.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary V2X, Inc. (NYSE: VVX) represents a compelling investment opportunity in the defense services and infrastructure sector. The company has successfully cleared a major technical overhang following the near-complete exit of its dominant private equity shareholder, American Industrial Partners (AIP), in May 2026. This structural shift, combined with a record backlog of $13.8 billion and strong organic growth (23% YoY in Q1 2026), positions the stock for a significant valuation re-rating. While historically valued as a low-margin services contractor, V2X's increasing focus on high-priority defense programs (such as pilot training and counter-UAS) and its transition toward higher-margin fixed-price contracts provide a clear path to margin expansion and deleveraging. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$70.00 Mean target$89.18 High · most bullish analyst$102.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $70.00 Contract execution delays, labor cost inflation, or successful competitor protests on major awards (such as the T-6 program) pressure operating margins. Cash flow conversion remains weak, delaying the company's deleveraging targets and keeping the net leverage ratio above 2.5x, which limits multiple expansion. Base CaseCentral scenario $89.18 Matches the consensus meanV2X successfully converts its record $13.8 billion backlog into steady high-single-digit revenue growth, meeting its raised FY2026 guidance of $4.825B to $4.975B. Net leverage successfully falls below 2.0x by year-end 2026. The elimination of the AIP private equity overhang allows the stock to trade closer to its peer group average forward multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $102.00 Accelerated backlog conversion, successful execution of the $4.3 billion T-6 program, and rapid expansion into high-margin defense technology solutions (e.g., Tempest counter-UAS) drive EBITDA margins toward 8%. Deleveraging occurs faster than expected, dropping net leverage below 1.5x by late 2026, prompting institutional capital to re-rate the stock to a premium multiple. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |