Utah Medical Products Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Equipment Beta (adjusted)0.57 Intrinsic Value $58.53median of 5 methods · middle span $56-$60based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $74.05Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $235M Enterprise Value $147.5M Shares Outstanding 3.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Utah Medical Products (UTMD) is a highly profitable, debt-free specialty medical device manufacturer with a strong balance sheet, characterized by $87.4 million in cash as of early 2026. However, the company is experiencing persistent fundamental deterioration, with Q1 2026 revenues declining 10.2% year-over-year (and 11.9% in constant currency) due to the loss of key OUS distributors and OEM customers. While litigation risks from the Filshie Clip product liability lawsuits are diminishing (with 15 of 19 courts dismissing the cases), the ongoing top-line contraction and lack of clear growth catalysts warrant a cautious 'Hold' stance until sales stabilize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $52.0015% The remaining Filshie Clip lawsuits in Connecticut proceed to trial, resulting in significant legal damages or settlement costs. Concurrently, international sales continue to deteriorate under the weight of EU MDR regulatory hurdles, leading to further contraction in EBITDA and cash flow. Base CaseCentral scenario $68.0060% Revenues continue to decline moderately or flatline through 2026 as the company adjusts to the loss of its Chinese distributor and PendoTECH. High gross margins (around 60%) and disciplined expense management protect profitability, while the massive cash pile provides a solid valuation floor. Bull CaseUpside scenario $80.0025% Sales stabilize faster than expected as new OUS distributors are onboarded, and the remaining Filshie Clip lawsuits are dismissed without going to trial. Operating margins expand back toward historical mid-30% levels due to favorable product mix and lower litigation expenses, prompting a re-rating of the stock. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |