Usio Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryTransaction and Payment Processing Services Beta (adjusted)1.21 Intrinsic Value $1.92median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $2.69Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $76.7M Enterprise Value $71.5M Shares Outstanding 28.1M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Usio, Inc. is demonstrating strong operational momentum, highlighted by record-breaking transaction volumes and double-digit top-line growth in its core credit card and ACH segments. The company's 'Usio One' strategy is successfully unifying its brand and cross-selling capabilities, driving significant operating leverage. While gross margins have experienced temporary compression due to a decline in high-margin interest revenues and segment mix shifts, overhead expenses remain tightly controlled. Trading at a significant discount to its fintech peers, Usio presents an attractive risk-reward profile as it scales toward consistent GAAP profitability. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.50 Mean target$5.58 High · most bullish analyst$6.25 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.0020% Macroeconomic headwinds, such as persistent inflation or a downturn in consumer spending, slow down transaction volumes. Continued attrition in the legacy prepaid card business and further declines in interest revenues compress gross margins below 20%, delaying the path to sustained GAAP profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.1350% Usio successfully delivers on its fiscal 2026 guidance of 10-12% revenue growth, supported by steady expansion in card processing and ACH services. Overhead expenses remain flat sequentially, allowing the company to maintain positive Adjusted EBITDA and achieve modest GAAP profitability. Bull CaseUpside scenario $6.2530% Accelerated adoption of the PayFac-in-a-Box platform and rapid expansion of Real-Time Payments (RTP) drive revenue growth above the guided 10-12% range. Gross margins recover quickly to the 23-25% historical range as high-margin card issuing and private-label gift card platforms scale, leading to substantial GAAP EPS expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |