USA Compression Partners LP Dossier - Source-backed chat

USA Compression Partners LP

USACNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services

Beta (adjusted)0.49

Intrinsic Value $59.49median of 5 methods · middle span $39-$337based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $24.87Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 139% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+139%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $3.6B

Enterprise Value $6.5B

Shares Outstanding 144.9M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend27 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC) is a leading provider of natural gas compression services, operating a highly utilized fleet under stable, long-term, fixed-fee contracts. The transformative acquisition of J-W Power Company in January 2026 has significantly expanded its fleet horsepower and market presence, driving record revenues and Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026. However, the partnership carries a highly leveraged balance sheet (Net Debt/EBITDA of ~3.74x) and faces integration challenges that contributed to a Q1 2026 EPS miss. While its high distribution yield (~8.2%) remains attractive and well-covered by distributable cash flow, the current valuation reflects these positives, making the stock a Hold at current levels.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$28.00

Mean target$29.60

High · most bullish analyst$33.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$28.00

A prolonged downturn in domestic natural gas drilling activity reduces demand for compression services, causing fleet utilization to drop below 90%. Integration friction or rising maintenance and labor costs squeeze operating margins, while high debt service costs pressure the distributable cash flow coverage, limiting financial flexibility.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$29.60

Matches the consensus mean

USAC successfully integrates J-W Power, maintaining stable fleet utilization around 91-93% and steady pricing. Leverage continues to decline gradually toward management's targets, supported by robust distributable cash flow. The partnership maintains its quarterly distribution of $0.525 per unit with comfortable coverage, trading in line with historical midstream infrastructure multiples.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$33.00

Accelerated synergy realization from the J-W Power acquisition and shared services with Energy Transfer drives net margin expansion. Stronger-than-expected natural gas production in core basins (Permian, Delaware, Marcellus) keeps fleet utilization above 95%, allowing USAC to command higher pricing on contract renewals and rapidly deleverage its balance sheet.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Stable, predictable cash flows underpinned by long-term, fixed-fee, take-or-pay contracts with major energy players.
Significant scale and market footprint expansion following the $860 million J-W Power acquisition in January 2026.
Strong backing and operational alignment with Energy Transfer, enabling shared services and procurement efficiencies.
Attractive and historically consistent distribution yield of over 8% with improved coverage ratios.

Key Investment Risks

High financial leverage relative to more conservatively capitalized peers like Archrock.
Sensitivity to domestic natural gas production volumes and drilling activity in key shale basins.
Customer concentration risk, with the top ten customers accounting for approximately 46% of total revenues.
Execution and integration risks associated with the large-scale J-W Power acquisition.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A sustained drop in fleet utilization below 88% indicating structural oversupply or demand destruction.
A material increase in leverage above 4.5x Net Debt/EBITDA that threatens credit ratings or distribution stability.
A significant reduction in the quarterly distribution payment, which would undermine the core income-focused investment case.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.