US Foods Holding Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryFood Distribution Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value $97.19median of 6 methods · middle span $59-$172based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $92.21Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $19.9B Enterprise Value $25.1B Shares Outstanding 218M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary US Foods is executing well: second-quarter fiscal 2026 independent restaurant case growth accelerated to 5.1%, Adjusted EBITDA increased 10.2%, Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 5.7%, and management reaffirmed 18%-24% Adjusted Diluted EPS growth guidance. However, the official investor-relations quote of $107.27 was already close to its $111.42 52-week high, leaving limited risk-adjusted upside to the $115 base case. Continued share gains, margin expansion and repurchases support the equity, while chain-volume weakness, food-away-from-home sensitivity and $5.2 billion of net debt constrain the margin of safety. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$61.00 Mean target$115.88 High · most bullish analyst$130.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $80.0020% Restaurant demand weakens, chain contraction deepens, food-cost or labor pressure prevents further margin expansion, and fiscal 2026 earnings growth falls below guidance. With net debt around $5.2 billion and the shares starting near their 52-week high, an earnings reset and valuation compression produce substantial downside. Base CaseCentral scenario $115.8855% Matches the consensus meanTarget-customer share gains and self-help initiatives broadly offset continuing chain weakness. Fiscal 2026 performance remains within the reaffirmed ranges of 4%-6% net-sales growth, 9%-13% Adjusted EBITDA growth and 18%-24% Adjusted Diluted EPS growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $135.0025% Independent restaurant growth remains near or above 5%, hospitality and healthcare volumes stay positive, and productivity produces margin expansion above the long-range-plan minimum. Fiscal 2026 results reach the upper end of guidance, capital returns reduce the share count, and confidence in sustained double-digit earnings growth supports a higher valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |