UroGen Pharma Ltd Dossier
|
SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.38 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $40.63Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $2B Enterprise Value $2.1B Shares Outstanding 50.8M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary UroGen Pharma Ltd. is transitioning from a clinical-stage biotech to a commercial-scale uro-oncology leader. The investment thesis centers on the rapid commercial inflection of ZUSDURI (mitomycin) for intravesical solution, which is the first and only FDA-approved therapy for recurrent low-grade intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (LG-IR-NMIBC). Supported by a newly implemented J-code, ZUSDURI's launch is accelerating, complementing the steady $100M annual run-rate of JELMYTO. Furthermore, the upcoming Q3 2026 NDA submission for UGN-103, a next-generation formulation with streamlined reconstitution and enhanced IP protection, provides a major near-term regulatory catalyst. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$44.00 Mean target$58.25 High · most bullish analyst$75.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $44.0010% ZUSDURI adoption faces operational bottlenecks in community clinics, and JELMYTO sales experience downward pressure from generic entry or litigation. UGN-103 submission is delayed or receives an FDA Complete Response Letter (CRL), forcing the company to raise highly dilutive equity capital as cash burn accelerates. Base CaseCentral scenario $58.2560% Matches the consensus meanZUSDURI achieves steady market penetration supported by the J-code, and JELMYTO meets its FY 2026 revenue guidance of $97M-$101M. UGN-103 is submitted for FDA approval in Q3 2026 as planned, with approval and launch occurring in late 2027. Operating expenses remain within the guided $240M-$250M range, and cash reserves of $140.3M provide sufficient runway. Bull CaseUpside scenario $75.0030% ZUSDURI adoption accelerates significantly faster than consensus expectations, capturing over 25% of the 60,000 US patient market and driving peak sales beyond $1.2B. Concurrently, UGN-103 receives priority FDA review and approval by mid-2027 with robust IP protection extending through 2041, while Teva patent settlements successfully preserve JELMYTO exclusivity. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |