Ur-Energy Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ur-Energy Inc

URGNYSE

SectorEnergy

IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels

Beta (adjusted)0.95

Intrinsic Value

No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference.

Market Price $1.08Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $429.7M

Enterprise Value $454.4M

Shares Outstanding 396.9M diluted

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ur-Energy Inc. (URG) is successfully transitioning from a care-and-maintenance posture to a multi-asset domestic uranium producer. By ramping up its flagship Lost Creek ISR facility and commencing initial operations at the fully licensed Shirley Basin project in April 2026, the company is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the structural supply deficit in the global uranium market and strong domestic policy tailwinds. While near-term financial results reflect high development-stage losses, the company's robust liquidity of $122.8 million in unrestricted cash and substantial multi-year sales commitments provide a clear runway to commercial profitability in the second half of 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$1.75

Mean target$2.26

High · most bullish analyst$2.75

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1.80

Operational bottlenecks persist at Lost Creek, or regulatory delays push back Shirley Basin's commercial resin shipments. Persistent high development costs and capital expenditures exhaust cash reserves faster than anticipated, forcing dilutive equity raises or expensive debt refinancing amid a temporary softening of spot uranium prices.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$2.26

Matches the consensus mean

Ur-Energy successfully executes its 2026 operational plan, delivering 1.3 million pounds of U3O8 at an average price of $63 per pound, generating approximately $82 million in revenue. Shirley Basin begins regular resin shipments to Lost Creek in Summer 2026, and the newly installed sand filtration system stabilizes flow rates, narrowing net losses and establishing a sustainable production run-rate.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$3.25

Uranium prices experience sustained upward momentum driven by aggressive utility contracting and geopolitical supply disruptions. Lost Creek and Shirley Basin ramp up ahead of schedule, exceeding the 2026 delivery target of 1.3 million pounds at higher market-based pricing, leading to rapid margin expansion and early debt retirement.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Dual-asset production footprint in Wyoming with Lost Creek operating and Shirley Basin commissioned in April 2026.
Strong demand visibility secured by multi-year sales agreements for 5.75 million pounds of U3O8 through 2033 with eight global utilities.
Robust balance sheet with $122.8 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2026, providing ample development runway.
In-Situ Recovery (ISR) mining method offers structurally lower cash costs and higher gross margins compared to conventional mining peers.

Key Investment Risks

Execution and ramp-up risks, including workforce inexperience and equipment maintenance bottlenecks at Lost Creek.
Sensitivity to uranium market price volatility and potential delays in securing additional high-value offtake agreements.
Regulatory risks associated with state and federal permits, including outstanding approvals for Shirley Basin shipments.
Near-term net losses and negative operating cash flows driven by heavy capital expenditures and development spending.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Prolonged operational failure or mechanical bottlenecks at the Lost Creek processing plant that prevent meeting 2026 delivery commitments.
Failure to obtain final regulatory clearances for Shirley Basin resin shipments by the end of 2026.
A material decline in long-term uranium contract prices below $50 per pound, severely impacting the economics of the company's reserves.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.