Upbound Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Upbound Group Inc

UPBDNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySoftware - Application

Beta (adjusted)1.52

Intrinsic Value $22.38median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$24based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $15.70Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $915.3M

Enterprise Value $2.2B

Shares Outstanding 58.9M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Upbound Group, Inc. is successfully transitioning from a legacy brick-and-mortar rent-to-own retailer (Rent-A-Center) into a technology-driven, omnichannel financial solutions platform. The primary growth engine is the Acima virtual lease-to-own (VLTO) segment, which embeds alternative checkout solutions directly with third-party retail partners. Additionally, the strategic acquisition of Brigit expands Upbound's digital financial health ecosystem, driving high-margin subscription revenue. Despite macroeconomic headwinds affecting subprime consumers, Upbound's disciplined underwriting, sequential improvements in lease charge-off rates, and robust cash flow generation support a compelling risk-reward profile with an attractive dividend yield.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$20.00

Mean target$28.25

High · most bullish analyst$41.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Severe macroeconomic downturn or persistent inflation further strains the subprime consumer, leading to a spike in lease defaults and charge-offs. Regulatory crackdowns on Earned Wage Access (EWA) or lease-to-own pricing structures impose compliance burdens and compress margins, causing the company to miss its financial targets.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The core Acima segment continues to expand its merchant partner network, maintaining stable transaction volumes and disciplined risk management. Rent-A-Center same-store sales remain slightly positive, and Brigit scales its subscriber base to drive high-margin recurring revenue. Underwriting adjustments keep lease charge-offs manageable, allowing the company to meet its reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong omnichannel platform with Acima driving virtual point-of-sale lease-to-own growth.
High-margin digital financial health expansion through the Brigit acquisition.
Robust free cash flow generation supporting a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share.
Disciplined risk management and sequential improvements in lease charge-off rates.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity of the target subprime consumer base to macroeconomic pressures and inflation.
Regulatory risks surrounding lease-to-own terms and digital financial health products (EWA).
Integration risks and potential compliance costs associated with the Brigit acquisition.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Acima lease charge-off rates rising significantly year-over-year, indicating underwriting failure.
Consolidated revenue falling below the lower bound of FY 2026 guidance ($4.70 billion).
Adverse federal or state regulatory rulings targeting the core lease-to-own or EWA business models.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.