Universal Logistics Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryCargo Ground Transportation Beta (adjusted)0.79 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $17.29Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $455.9M Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 26.4M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc. (ULH) is navigating a challenging freight environment characterized by severe pricing pressures and volume declines, particularly in its Intermodal segment. While its Contract Logistics segment remains a resilient core contributor, overall profitability has been heavily impacted, resulting in a net loss of $(3.5) million in Q1 2026. Given the near-term headwinds in the broader trucking and intermodal markets, a cautious 'Hold' stance is warranted until there is clear evidence of a cyclical recovery or a return to profitability in the Intermodal segment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$15.00 Mean target$15.00 High · most bullish analyst$15.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Universal Logistics Holdings faces persistent operational headwinds, including severe margin compression in its contract logistics segment, ongoing losses in its intermodal division, and weak trucking profits. This is compounded by high leverage (debt-to-equity ratio of 1.73), material weaknesses in internal controls over financial reporting, and cyclical exposure to the automotive industry. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that the freight market remains soft through the remainder of 2026, with gradual stabilization in 2027. Contract Logistics will continue to provide stable cash flows, offsetting some of the losses in Intermodal. Cost-control initiatives and capacity rationalization are expected to slowly narrow Intermodal losses, leading to a return to consolidated profitability by mid-2027. Bull CaseUpside scenario Universal Logistics Holdings is positioned to benefit from an early, supply-driven recovery in the truckload cycle as capacity comes into better balance with freight volumes, which is expected to support pricing and asset utilization over time. Additionally, the stock is considered undervalued by analysts, trading at a low price-to-sales multiple relative to its historical averages and peers, presenting a constructive long-term setup. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |