Universal Health Services Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Universal Health Services Inc

UHSNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryMedical Care Facilities

Beta (adjusted)1.04

Intrinsic Value $259.61median of 6 methods · middle span $197-$330based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $174.26Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 49% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $10.3B

Enterprise Value $15B

Shares Outstanding 59.7M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

UHS enters the second half of 2026 with solid revenue and earnings growth, improving acute-care volume and a newly expanded virtual behavioral-health platform following the Talkspace acquisition. The counterweight is reduced full-year earnings guidance, limited behavioral-health admission growth, reliance on supplemental Medicaid reimbursement and material integration execution risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$166.00

Mean target$193.94

High · most bullish analyst$290.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$166.0020%

Adjusted EBITDA falls below revised guidance because supplemental Medicaid reimbursement, behavioral-health volumes or liability costs deteriorate, while Talkspace integration consumes management attention or fails to retain providers and payor relationships.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$193.9455%

Matches the consensus mean

Results remain within revised 2026 guidance. Acute-care growth and behavioral-health pricing offset modest behavioral admission growth, while Talkspace integration proceeds gradually.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$290.0025%

Results reach the upper portion of revised 2026 guidance as acute-care volume remains positive, behavioral-health pricing holds, and Talkspace begins generating referrals across virtual, outpatient and inpatient settings without material integration disruption.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 net revenue grew 8.3% and adjusted EBITDA net of NCI increased to $677.9 million from $642.9 million.
Same-facility acute-care adjusted admissions increased 2.9%, while same-facility behavioral-health revenue increased 7.4% in the second quarter.
Talkspace adds a nationwide virtual platform with approximately 6,000 licensed providers and services available to more than 200 million people.

Key Investment Risks

The midpoint of revised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced by 1.9%, and the adjusted EPS midpoint was reduced by 2.6% versus original guidance.
Second-quarter behavioral-health same-facility adjusted admissions increased only 0.5%, leaving growth more dependent on revenue per admission and patient day.
The Florida Medicaid directed-payment benefit contributed $100 million pre-tax in the second quarter, while incremental benefit beyond September 2025 had not received CMS approval and was excluded from revised guidance.
Talkspace integration creates risks involving costs, provider and employee retention, payor relationships, management distraction and delayed synergies.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.