Universal Health Realty Income Trust Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryHealth Care REITs Beta (adjusted)0.88 Intrinsic Value $37.78median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $37.39Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $519.7M Enterprise Value $887.6M Shares Outstanding 13.9M diluted Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend22 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT) is a defensively positioned healthcare REIT with a highly stable, triple-net lease portfolio and an exceptional 39-year track record of consecutive annual dividend increases. However, its high tenant concentration with Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS), which accounts for approximately 41% of revenues, and limited near-term organic growth catalysts make it primarily an income-oriented vehicle rather than a capital appreciation play. At current valuation levels, the stock is fairly valued, offering a robust dividend yield of ~7.5% that is well-supported by stable FFO generation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$42.00 Mean target$42.00 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Rising interest rates or elevated credit spreads increase the cost of debt on UHT's substantial credit facility borrowings ($359.5 million outstanding as of Q1 2026), compressing FFO margins. Tenant distress or lease expirations at key properties (similar to the Amarillo, Texas MOB vacancy in late 2025) lead to prolonged vacancy periods and higher re-tenanting costs. High concentration in UHS-related properties exposes the Trust to material downside if the advisor/tenant relationship deteriorates. Base CaseCentral scenario The Trust maintains stable occupancy and rental collections across its 77 investments. The Miller Medical Plaza development in Florida opens on schedule in late 2026, supported by its 75% pre-leased master flex lease with UHS. Moderate rent escalations offset minor property-level expense increases, keeping annual FFO per share stable around $3.40–$3.50. The dividend is maintained or marginally increased, preserving UHT's status as a reliable income generator. Bull CaseUpside scenario UHT offers a highly defensive, stable income stream backed by a diversified national healthcare portfolio and a remarkable 40-year track record of uninterrupted dividend growth. The trust benefits from strong macro tailwinds in outpatient care (medical office buildings) and maintains robust EBITDA margins compared to peers, with further growth potential driven by Sunbelt expansion and new developments like the Miller Medical Plaza. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |