Universal Display Corp Dossier
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Beta (adjusted)1.37 Intrinsic Value $96.66median of 6 methods · middle span $59-$134based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $77.04Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 25% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.5B Shares Outstanding 46.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Universal Display Corporation (UDC) remains the undisputed intellectual property and material leader in the OLED ecosystem. However, near-term headwinds including a challenging customer mix, lower unit material volumes, and reduced visibility have led management to trim its FY 2026 revenue guidance to $630M-$670M (midpoint of $650M, representing flat year-over-year growth). While long-term catalysts such as Gen 8.6 IT capacity additions and the highly anticipated commercialization of phosphorescent blue emitters remain intact, the stock is currently trading close to its intrinsic value, justifying a Hold rating until sequential growth re-accelerates. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.36 Mean target$115.37 High · most bullish analyst$158.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $80.36 Macroeconomic headwinds and persistent inflation depress consumer electronics demand, leading to prolonged inventory adjustments by major panel makers. The commercialization of phosphorescent blue emitters faces further technical delays. Competitive pressures or alternative display technologies limit market expansion, causing revenue to fall toward the lower end of guidance ($630 million). Base CaseCentral scenario $115.37 Matches the consensus meanOLED adoption continues at a measured pace in premium smartphones and TVs. Gen 8.6 capacity additions come online in late 2026, with material sales recovering gradually in the second half of the year. Full-year 2026 revenue meets the midpoint guidance of $650 million, and gross margins remain stable between 74% and 76%. Bull CaseUpside scenario $158.00 Rapid adoption of OLED screens in IT devices (laptops, tablets) and automotive displays accelerates demand. The commercial rollout of the breakthrough phosphorescent blue emitter occurs ahead of schedule, significantly boosting material sales and royalty rates. Gen 8.6 fabs in Korea and China ramp up production faster than expected, driving high-volume orders. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |