Uniti Group Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Specialty Beta (adjusted)1.25 Intrinsic Value $8.91median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $8.38Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2B Enterprise Value $12.1B Shares Outstanding 242.7M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Jun 2024 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Uniti Group Inc. has successfully completed its transformative merger with Windstream, establishing itself as a premier insurgent fiber provider with a scaled national footprint. While the merger unlocks significant long-term synergies and growth opportunities through its Kinetic FTTH buildout and hyperscaler/AI fiber infrastructure, the company faces near-term headwinds. These include elevated capital expenditures, negative free cash flow, and high leverage (net debt to pro forma EBITDA of 5.8x). Consequently, a Hold recommendation is warranted as the market monitors operational execution, cost management, and non-core asset sales. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$6.00 Mean target$10.31 High · most bullish analyst$16.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario FTTH buildout costs escalate significantly beyond the projected $850 to $950 range due to inflationary pressures and contractor inefficiencies. Slower-than-anticipated customer activations and declining legacy revenues in the Solutions segment pressure margins, while high interest rates continue to weigh on the company's leveraged capital structure. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its fiber buildout, reaching its target of 3.5 million homes passed by 2029, while maintaining disciplined cost control. Non-core asset sales of $500 million to $1 billion are executed over the next 12 to 36 months, helping to deleverage the balance sheet toward the 5.5x target. Valuation multiples stabilize as the high-margin fiber business becomes a larger portion of the overall mix. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |