United Therapeutics Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $398.25median of 6 methods · middle span $324-$782based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $541.89Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $23.2B Enterprise Value $21.4B Shares Outstanding 45.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary United Therapeutics has compelling late-stage cardiopulmonary catalysts: the FDA is reviewing ralinepag for PAH, nebulized Tyvaso has been submitted for IPF after two positive pivotal studies, and TETON-PPF is fully enrolled. These opportunities are balanced by unresolved regulatory outcomes, recent competitive pressure on established pulmonary-hypertension products, and execution and clinical-outcome uncertainty in the emerging organ platform. The recommendation reflects this catalyst-risk balance rather than quantified valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$515.00 Mean target$653.23 High · most bullish analyst$725.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $515.0018% The bear case assumes a negative or delayed FDA outcome for one or both principal cardiopulmonary submissions, continued competitive pressure on established products, or disappointing PPF efficacy. Slower LungFX adoption or adverse clinical experience could also postpone meaningful contribution from the organ platform. Base CaseCentral scenario $653.2358% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes that the positive ralinepag and TETON clinical evidence supports continued FDA review, but recognizes that both principal label-expansion catalysts remained unresolved as of 2026-08-31. Established operations fund continued development, while competitive pressure and launch execution moderate the near-term outlook. Bull CaseUpside scenario $725.0024% The bull case assumes FDA approval of both ralinepag in PAH and nebulized Tyvaso in IPF, followed by successful commercialization; subsequent positive TETON-PPF data would extend the pulmonary-fibrosis opportunity. LungFX service availability in 2027 and continued progress in manufactured organs would add strategic optionality. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |