United States Lime & Minerals Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryBuilding Materials Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $95.22median of 6 methods · middle span $70-$118based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $113.11Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.2B Enterprise Value $2.8B Shares Outstanding 28.8M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) remains a highly robust, debt-free operator with exceptional profitability and a massive cash cushion of $383.2 million. However, recent Q1 2026 results highlight near-term headwinds, with revenue declining 3.7% year-over-year to $87.8 million and diluted EPS falling 10.4% to $1.06 due to softer demand from construction, oil and gas, and roof shingle customers. While the company's long-term outlook is supported by steady infrastructure spending and the upcoming summer 2026 launch of its new $65 million vertical kiln in Texas, its current valuation of 4.60x book value is elevated on both an absolute and relative basis. Given the cyclical nature of its end markets and the lack of immediate catalysts to justify a premium multiple, a Hold rating is maintained. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$132.00 Mean target$132.00 High · most bullish analyst$132.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A broader regional economic slowdown severely impacts construction and steelmaking activity, leading to prolonged volume declines. The startup of the new Texas kiln faces operational delays or higher-than-expected commissioning costs. Persistent fuel and logistics inflation continues to compress gross margins. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully starts up its new vertical kiln in Texas during summer 2026, expanding capacity and improving production efficiency. Regional construction demand stabilizes, supported by public infrastructure and highway projects, offsetting ongoing softness in residential roofing and oil and gas services. Margins stabilize as fuel and transportation costs normalize. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |