United States Antimony Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

United States Antimony Corp

UAMYNYSE

SectorMaterials

IndustryOther Industrial Metals & Mining

Beta (adjusted)0.59

Intrinsic Value $0.50median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $4.17Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 88% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-88%)

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Market Cap $624.1M

Enterprise Value $594M

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

United States Antimony Corp (USAC) represents a unique, high-conviction geopolitical play as the only vertically integrated antimony producer and processor in the United States outside of China and Russia. Following China's December 2024 export restrictions on critical minerals, USAC's strategic value has surged, highlighted by a massive $245 million sole-source contract with the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) and a $27 million Defense Production Act grant. While the company has historically operated at a loss, its aggressive vertical integration strategy—restarting domestic mining at Stibnite Hill, Montana, expanding the Thompson Falls smelter, and acquiring processing facilities—is expected to dramatically improve gross margins and drive revenue toward a targeted $125 million in 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$9.00

Mean target$11.19

High · most bullish analyst$13.50

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$9.0020%

Operational delays in the Thompson Falls smelter expansion and logistical bottlenecks in transporting feedstock from Alaska or Montana limit production capacity. Continued reliance on high-cost third-party international ore keeps gross margins depressed. Further equity dilution occurs to fund capital expenditures, and a drop in global antimony prices squeezes margins, keeping the company unprofitable.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$11.1950%

Matches the consensus mean

USAC successfully ramps up processing of its own mined Montana feedstock through the Radersburg flotation facility in the remaining quarters of 2026. Smelter expansions come online, allowing the company to begin deliveries under the DLA contract. Revenues reach the guided $125 million target for 2026, and gross margins improve significantly as reliance on expensive third-party international ore decreases, bringing the company to operating profitability.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$13.5030%

Rapid execution of the Thompson Falls smelter expansion to 300 tons per month, combined with high-grade feedstock from Stibnite Hill and Alaska, drives gross margins above 40%. The company fully capitalizes on the $245 million DLA contract and secures additional high-margin defense and commercial contracts, leading to 2026 revenues exceeding $135 million and strong positive net income.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Only vertically integrated antimony producer and processor in the United States, providing a critical domestic supply chain solution amid geopolitical decoupling.
Substantial revenue visibility backed by a multi-year sole-source DLA contract worth up to $245 million and a $27 million Pentagon grant.
Transitioning from a low-margin toll processor to a high-margin vertically integrated miner by restarting domestic mining at Stibnite Hill, Montana, which is expected to yield margins three times higher than third-party ore.

Key Investment Risks

Historical track record of operational losses in six of the past seven fiscal years, highlighting execution risk in scaling operations profitably.
High customer and contract concentration, with a significant portion of near-term upside tied directly to government contracts.
Potential for further shareholder dilution, as seen in post-Q1 2026 equity raises of $48.6 million and proposals to increase authorized common shares.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to achieve the targeted Thompson Falls smelter expansion capacity of 300 tons per month by late 2026.
Cancellation or material reduction in orders under the $245 million DLA contract.
A sustained drop in global antimony prices below profitable mining and processing thresholds.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.