United Rentals Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

United Rentals Inc

URINYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors

Beta (adjusted)1.53

Intrinsic Value $822.12median of 4 methods · middle span $697-$947based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $1,000.78Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $62.3B

Enterprise Value $76.4B

Shares Outstanding 62.2M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend12 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

United Rentals entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter rental revenue increased 12.7%, fleet productivity rose 3.4%, and specialty-rentals revenue grew 24.8%. Management raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook, while net leverage remained 1.8x. Specialty-rental gross margin also declined 140 basis points, and the capital-intensive, cyclical model remains exposed to construction activity, financing conditions, tariffs and fleet residual values. The resulting stance is Hold pending a verifiable valuation anchor or a wider margin of safety.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$950.00

Mean target$1,272.43

High · most bullish analyst$1,610.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$950.0021%

Construction or industrial demand weakens, fleet productivity turns negative, and specialty-rental mix pressure extends the reported gross-margin decline. Elevated rental-equipment investment and higher leverage then reduce financial flexibility.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1,272.4355%

Matches the consensus mean

United Rentals delivers within its raised 2026 outlook, supported by positive fleet productivity and large-project demand, while specialty growth moderates and capital intensity limits free-cash-flow conversion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$1,610.0024%

Large-project demand, customer backlogs and specialty-rental momentum remain durable. Fleet productivity stays positive, specialty growth remains strong without further material margin erosion, and United Rentals delivers near or above the upper ends of its raised 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 equipment-rental revenue increased 12.7% year over year, accompanied by 3.4% fleet productivity growth.
Specialty-rentals revenue increased 24.8% year over year, materially faster than general-rentals growth of 6.6%.
Management raised its 2026 outlook to $17.5-$17.8 billion of revenue and $7.975-$8.125 billion of adjusted EBITDA while reporting a 1.8x net leverage ratio.

Key Investment Risks

Specialty-rentals gross margin declined 140 basis points year over year as lower-margin ancillary and re-rent revenue affected mix.
The company identifies construction and industrial cyclicality, interest rates, tariffs, competition and lower-than-expected customer demand as material uncertainties.
The raised outlook requires $4.85-$5.25 billion of gross rental capital expenditures, making returns sensitive to utilization, rental rates and used-equipment residual values.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.