United Parks & Resorts Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryLeisure Beta (adjusted)1.10 Intrinsic Value $47.27median of 5 methods · middle span $36-$78based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $32.40Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 46% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.5B Enterprise Value $3.7B Shares Outstanding 48.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend27 Sep 2016 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary United Parks & Resorts Inc. (PRKS) presents a balanced risk-reward profile as of mid-2026. The company continues to demonstrate exceptional pricing power and operational execution, achieving record in-park per capita spending of $40.62 in Q1 2026. Furthermore, aggressive share buybacks ($157.5 million deployed through early May 2026) and strong forward indicators, such as a 10% increase in paid pass sales, support the long-term value proposition. However, near-term performance remains heavily constrained by seasonal headwinds, adverse weather in key markets, and a slow recovery in international visitation, which led to a wider-than-expected Q1 2026 net loss of $34.1 million. Additionally, mixed analyst sentiment and concerns regarding the company's shareholder structure (specifically the influence of Hill Path Capital) warrant a cautious, neutral stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$47.80 High · most bullish analyst$55.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $40.0015% Persistent adverse weather during peak summer months and intensifying competition in the Florida market lead to multi-quarter attendance declines. Rising operating expenses and failure to realize planned cost savings squeeze margins, while governance concerns prompt further valuation multiple contraction. Base CaseCentral scenario $47.8060% Matches the consensus meanAttendance stabilizes as new rides and marketing initiatives offset competitive pressures in Florida. In-park per capita spending continues to grow at a moderate pace, and the company achieves its full-year revenue and EBITDA growth targets, supported by ongoing share repurchases. Bull CaseUpside scenario $55.0025% Accelerated recovery in international tourism, combined with favorable summer weather, drives attendance above expectations. Continued expansion of high-margin in-park spending and successful execution of the $50 million cost-savings initiative lead to significant margin expansion and record Adjusted EBITDA. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |