United Micro Electronics ADR Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.38 Intrinsic Value $4.73median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $24.49Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 81% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-81%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $61.4B Enterprise Value $59B Shares Outstanding 2.5B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend8 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary UMC entered the second half of 2026 with improving operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 17.0% year over year, gross margin reached 32.5%, utilization rose to 85%, and July sales increased 18.98% year over year. Management's 3Q26 outlook calls for high-single-digit sequential shipment growth, utilization above 90%, and gross margin in the mid-30% range. The constructive operating trend is reinforced by record 22/28nm activity, commercial silicon-photonics production, and phased capacity investments tied to AI and edge-computing demand. A Hold rather than Buy is appropriate because the higher capital program adds execution and return-on-investment risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.80 Mean target$18.49 High · most bullish analyst$33.76 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.8019% The current demand improvement proves temporary, utilization falls below the 3Q26 guide, and monthly revenue growth turns negative. At the same time, the enlarged capital program creates underutilized capacity, higher depreciation, or weaker investment returns before silicon-photonics and advanced-packaging revenue reaches sufficient scale. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.4959% Matches the consensus meanHigh-single-digit sequential shipment growth, utilization above 90%, and mid-30% gross margin broadly materialize in 3Q26, while 22nm and specialty-process demand remain supportive. The phased expansion preserves flexibility but increases execution requirements. Bull CaseUpside scenario $33.7622% UMC exceeds its 3Q26 operating guidance as utilization remains above 90%, specialty-node mix continues improving, and silicon-photonics demand scales after the first mass-production delivery. Customer-backed expansion in Singapore and Tainan then creates a credible path to sustained AI-infrastructure growth without materially weakening capital efficiency. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |