United Bancorp Inc (Martins Ferry, OH) Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $11.96median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $14.79Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $84.8M Enterprise Value $137.1M Shares Outstanding 5.4M diluted Last ex-dividend10 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary United Bancorp Inc (UBCP) presents a compelling community banking investment case characterized by robust core operating performance, expanding net interest margins, and a highly attractive dividend yield. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties and unrealized securities losses common across the regional banking sector, UBCP continues to grow its deposit franchise and loan portfolio organically. Strategic investments in technology, such as AI-driven customer support and omnichannel account opening platforms housed in the new Unified Center, position the bank for enhanced customer acquisition and operational efficiency over the next 12 to 24 months. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$20.00 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $14.0020% Persistent high interest rates continue to depress the market value of the bank's securities portfolio, leading to further equity erosion. Simultaneously, a deterioration in a major commercial relationship or broader regional economic weakness triggers higher nonaccrual loans and elevated credit provisioning, constraining dividend capacity. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.0050% UBCP maintains steady organic asset and deposit growth while successfully managing credit risk. Net interest margin remains stable around 3.70%, and the bank continues its long-standing track record of rewarding shareholders through regular and special cash dividends, supported by solid core earnings. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0030% Accelerated repricing of the loan portfolio in a stable high-rate environment combined with rapid adoption of the new digital banking platforms drives superior loan growth and net interest margin expansion. Credit quality remains pristine, allowing for provision releases that boost earnings beyond consensus expectations. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |