Unisys Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Unisys Corp

UISNYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryIT Consulting & Other Services

Beta (adjusted)1.60

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $2.31Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $168.4M

Enterprise Value $544.6M

Shares Outstanding 72.7M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend18 Jun 1990

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Unisys Corporation is in the midst of a multi-year operational turnaround, driven by its high-margin ClearPath Forward (ECS) ecosystem and a strategic pivot toward AI-enabled digital workplace and cloud solutions. While operational profitability has improved significantly—with GAAP operating margins tripling in Q1 2026—the company's capital structure remains heavily burdened. High interest expenses from its 10.625% senior secured notes due 2031 and substantial legacy pension obligations continue to depress GAAP free cash flow, which is projected to remain negative for the full year 2026. Consequently, while the operational turnaround is encouraging, the equity case remains balanced, warranting a Hold rating until refinancing or pension de-risking catalysts materialize.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$4.00

Mean target$5.67

High · most bullish analyst$7.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$3.0020%

The bear case reflects execution risks in the IT services turnaround, accelerated client attrition in the Digital Workplace Solutions (DWS) segment, and macroeconomic headwinds that delay software license renewals. Under this scenario, refinancing is delayed, interest costs remain high, and cash burn intensifies, putting pressure on liquidity.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$4.0050%

The base case assumes Unisys continues its steady operational improvement, meeting its revised 2026 constant currency revenue guidance of (5.0%) to (3.5%) and non-GAAP operating margin of 9.0% to 11.0%. Free cash flow remains slightly negative due to high interest costs, and the company continues to systematically reduce its pension deficit toward its 2026 targets.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$9.0030%

The bull case is predicated on a rapid refinancing of the 10.625% senior secured notes at a lower coupon, combined with faster-than-expected execution of the 2029 financial framework. In this scenario, ClearPath Forward revenues exceed expectations, and the company achieves sustained positive GAAP free cash flow ahead of schedule, driving significant multiple expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

High-margin ClearPath Forward (ECS) ecosystem driving ~70% gross margins and providing stable cash flow support.
Successful operational turnaround with GAAP operating margin tripling year-over-year to 3.7% in Q1 2026.
Proactive pension de-risking, having reduced the global pension deficit by approximately $300 million over the past year.
Strong momentum in New Business signings, with Q1 2026 New Business TCV increasing 45% year-over-year to $158 million.

Key Investment Risks

Heavy debt service burden from the 10.625% senior secured notes due 2031, which consume ~$70 million in annual interest.
Negative GAAP free cash flow projected for full-year 2026, limiting capital allocation flexibility.
Revenue contraction headwinds, with constant currency revenue expected to decline 3.5% to 5.0% in 2026.
Client attrition and volume declines in legacy Digital Workplace Solutions (DWS) field services.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to refinance the 10.625% senior secured notes before 2028, locking in high interest expenses.
A material widening of the global pension deficit due to adverse asset returns or discount rate changes.
Two consecutive quarters of declining New Business TCV, indicating a loss of market competitiveness in AI and cloud solutions.
Operating margins falling below the guided 9.0% to 11.0% non-GAAP range for full-year 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.