uniQure NV Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.95 Intrinsic Value $11.57median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $24.16Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 52% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-52%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $1.6B Shares Outstanding 67.1M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary uniQure N.V. has experienced a major regulatory de-risking event following its June 2026 Type B meeting with the FDA. The agency's communication that the 3-year analysis from the Phase I/II study of AMT-130 can serve as the primary basis for a BLA accelerated approval filing has fundamentally transformed the company's outlook. Previously, the stock was heavily pressured by expectations of a lengthy and expensive Phase III sham-controlled trial. With a clear path to a BLA submission in Q3 2026 and a strong cash runway extending into the second half of 2029, uniQure represents a highly compelling biotech investment with near-term commercialization catalysts in both the U.S. and the UK. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$46.79 Mean target$69.72 High · most bullish analyst$96.64 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $46.7915% The FDA raises unexpected issues during the BLA review or delays the filing due to disagreements over the confirmatory study design. UK MHRA review is prolonged, or interim data from other pipeline assets show safety concerns. Cash burn increases, forcing dilutive capital raises before commercialization is achieved. Base CaseCentral scenario $69.7260% Matches the consensus meanuniQure successfully files the BLA in the U.S. and the MAA in the UK during Q3 2026. The FDA aligns on a confirmatory study design utilizing standard-of-care concurrent controls rather than a sham surgery. The stock re-rates upward as regulatory milestones are met, supported by a robust cash position of over $580 million that funds operations through late 2029. Bull CaseUpside scenario $96.6425% The FDA grants accelerated approval to AMT-130 in early 2027 based on the Q3 2026 BLA submission. Concurrently, the UK MHRA approves the MAA. Commercial launch proceeds rapidly as the first disease-modifying therapy for Huntington's disease, capturing a multi-billion dollar market. Early pipeline candidates (AMT-260 for epilepsy and AMT-191 for Fabry disease) deliver strong clinical readouts, driving further valuation expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |