Union Bankshares Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value $25.15median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $23.00Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $113.8M Enterprise Value $385.6M Shares Outstanding 4.8M diluted Next Earnings Date15 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend27 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Union Bankshares, Inc. (UNB) operates as a stable, community-focused bank holding company in northern Vermont and New Hampshire. While the bank has shown solid bottom-line improvements—with Q1 2026 net income rising 20.1% year-over-year to $3.0 million ($0.65 per share)—its core operational metrics such as Net Interest Margin (2.93% in FY 2025) and Return on Average Assets (0.71% in FY 2025) remain below national peer averages. The stock's valuation has become more reasonable following a price decline, trading at a price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.34x and a trailing P/E of 9.4x. Supported by a strong dividend yield of over 6%, the stock represents a defensive income play, but geographic headwinds and high real estate loan concentration limit near-term growth catalysts, justifying a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A localized economic downturn in Vermont and New Hampshire leads to rising credit losses in the real estate portfolio. Funding costs rise faster than asset yields, compressing NIM below 2.80%. Dividend coverage tightens, leading to flat or declining book value. Base CaseCentral scenario The bank maintains stable deposit and loan levels with modest net interest margin improvements as interest rates stabilize. Earnings grow at a low single-digit rate, supporting the current quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share. Book value continues to build gradually through retained earnings. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case for Union Bankshares is supported by its strong community banking model, robust asset quality, and successful leadership transition. In Q2 2026, the bank demonstrated its earnings power with a 20.4% year-over-year increase in net income to $2.9 million, driven by an 11.2% expansion in net interest income. Book value per share grew 16.7% year-over-year to $18.28, and the bank maintains an attractive dividend yield of over 5.8% with a sustainable payout ratio of 55.2%. The appointment of Jeffery F. Weidley (former Chief Deposit Officer at MVB Bank) as CEO brings valuable expertise in digital strategy and deposit growth to drive future expansion. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |