Under Armour Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Under Armour Inc

UAANYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryApparel Manufacturing

Beta (adjusted)1.42

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $4.46Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $1.9B

Enterprise Value $2.1B

Shares Outstanding 431.4M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Under Armour is in the midst of a critical multi-year turnaround led by founder Kevin Plank, shifting its strategic focus from volume to margin preservation and brand premiumization. While the company has successfully executed a 25% SKU reduction and is targeting significant gross margin expansion in fiscal 2027 (aided by a $70 million IEEPA tariff refund), top-line growth remains under severe pressure, particularly in North America. Deep-value investor Prem Watsa of Fairfax Financial has aggressively accumulated shares, establishing a strong valuation floor. However, persistent direct-to-consumer weakness, intense competitive headwinds, and ongoing restructuring execution risks warrant a cautious, wait-and-see posture.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$4.00

Mean target$6.40

High · most bullish analyst$12.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$4.00

North American revenue erosion accelerates beyond expectations as retail partners reduce shelf space and DTC traffic remains weak. Promotional activity and supply chain disruptions offset the benefits of the tariff refund, causing gross margins to miss guidance. Restructuring costs overrun the $305 million budget, and the exit of the Curry brand has a larger-than-expected negative impact on brand equity and sales.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$6.40

Matches the consensus mean

Under Armour achieves its fiscal 2027 guidance of slight revenue declines, gross margin expansion of 220 to 270 basis points, and adjusted operating income of $140 million to $160 million. North American declines slow to low-single digits, while EMEA and APAC provide modest offsets. Restructuring is substantially completed by year-end within the $305 million budget, stabilizing the business model but leaving top-line growth flat.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$12.00

The turnaround accelerates as North American wholesale order books stabilize and direct-to-consumer traffic recovers. Brand premiumization efforts, SKU rationalization, and raw material consolidation drive gross margins above 48%, while international markets (EMEA and APAC) continue to deliver high-single-digit growth. The $70 million tariff refund and restructuring cost-efficiencies boost adjusted operating income beyond the high end of guidance, leading to a rapid rerating of the stock.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Aggressive contrarian accumulation by legendary deep-value investor Prem Watsa (Fairfax Financial), holding over 44 million shares, which limits downside risk.
Significant gross margin expansion potential of 220 to 270 basis points in FY2027, supported by a $70 million IEEPA tariff refund.
Disciplined operational execution, including a completed 25% SKU reduction and raw material consolidation to protect brand premiumization.

Key Investment Risks

Persistent structural weakness and double-digit revenue erosion in the core North American domestic market.
Intense competitive landscape from dominant players (Nike, Lululemon) and emerging athletic brands, limiting DTC traffic recovery.
Execution and integration risks associated with the extended Fiscal 2025 Restructuring Plan, carrying total program costs of $305 million.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

North American revenue declines accelerating to double digits in Q1 FY2027.
Gross margin expansion failing to materialize in Q1 FY2027 despite the tariff refund tailwind.
Restructuring costs exceeding the expanded $305 million budget or failing to deliver targeted run-rate savings.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.