UMH Properties Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Residential Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $15.40Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.3B Shares Outstanding 85.2M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary UMH Properties, Inc. (UMH) represents a compelling value opportunity within the manufactured housing REIT sector, trading at a discount to its larger peers. The company's organic growth engine is driven by a substantial land bank of vacant lots and a highly profitable rental home program yielding double-digit unlevered returns. While high interest rates and elevated capital expenditures pressure net income margins, strong demand for affordable workforce housing provides a resilient cash flow foundation. Recent capital structure enhancements, including an expanded credit facility and preferred stock offerings, position UMH to execute on its community expansion and acquisition pipeline. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$16.00 Mean target$18.88 High · most bullish analyst$23.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $16.0020% Persistent high interest rates elevate financing costs, while winter weather or inflationary pressures drive up maintenance expenses, compressing net income margins further. Financing constraints or regulatory hurdles slow down the rental home deployment, putting pressure on dividend coverage and leading to a wider valuation discount. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.8850% Matches the consensus meanUMH continues to deliver steady operational execution, maintaining mid-single-digit same-property NOI growth and gradually improving overall occupancy toward 90%. The company successfully navigates its CFO transition and utilizes its expanded $260 million credit facility to fund expansion sites, supporting a stable dividend yield. Bull CaseUpside scenario $23.5030% Accelerated lease-up of the 3,300 vacant lots and rapid deployment of the 800+ annual rental home program drive FFO growth above expectations. Strong demand in the Marcellus and Utica Shale regions allows for higher-than-expected rent increases, while activist pressure from Erez Asset Management successfully catalyzes governance reforms and closes the valuation discount to peers. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |