UL Solutions Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

UL Solutions Inc

ULSNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Business Services

Beta (adjusted)0.75

Intrinsic Value $71.40median of 5 methods · middle span $69-$120based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $65.62Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $13.2B

Enterprise Value $13.1B

Shares Outstanding 204M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend29 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

UL Solutions entered the second half of 2026 with resilient organic growth, expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins, strong operating cash generation and reduced debt. These strengths are balanced by higher capital intensity and execution, regulatory and integration risk surrounding the pending Eurofins electrical and electronics acquisition.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$79.00

Mean target$97.32

High · most bullish analyst$120.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$79.0021%

Customer delays, geopolitical uncertainty or weaker execution reduce operating leverage; full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below the approximately 27% outlook, capital expenditures exceed the approximately 8.5% of revenue plan, or the Eurofins transaction is delayed or proves harder to integrate.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$97.3258%

Matches the consensus mean

UL Solutions delivers approximately its stated 2026 outlook: mid-single-digit constant-currency organic growth and an Adjusted EBITDA margin near 27%, while elevated investment supports future capacity and the Eurofins transaction closes during the fourth quarter.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$120.0021%

Organic growth remains above the mid-single-digit outlook, full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin meets or exceeds approximately 27%, and the Eurofins electrical and electronics acquisition closes on schedule and ultimately expands UL Solutions' geographic reach and testing capabilities without disrupting cash generation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 organic revenue growth was 6.6%, following 5.7% in the first quarter, supporting management's mid-single-digit full-year outlook.
Second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA increased 11.2% to $219 million and margin expanded 140 basis points to 26.8%; management maintained an approximately 27.0% full-year margin outlook.
For the first half of 2026, operating cash flow reached $379 million, while total debt declined to $303 million and cash and cash equivalents increased to $434 million.

Key Investment Risks

Management increased its capital-expenditure outlook to approximately 8.5% of revenue, raising the importance of returns on laboratory capacity and cash-flow conversion.
The approximately €575 million Eurofins electrical and electronics acquisition remains subject to regulatory approvals and closing conditions and introduces financing and integration risk.
Management warned that geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty may cause customers to modify, delay or cancel purchases of testing and product-development services.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.