UGI Corp Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Gas Beta (adjusted)0.96 Intrinsic Value $29.06median of 6 methods · middle span $27-$34based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $35.67Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.7B Enterprise Value $13.8B Shares Outstanding 222.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date23 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary UGI Corporation is executing a significant strategic turnaround, shifting capital away from volatile global LPG markets toward stable, regulated natural gas utilities and midstream infrastructure. The company's definitive agreement to sell its Pennsylvania Electric Division for $470 million and its ongoing exit from European LPG operations provide a substantial liquidity pipeline to aggressively deleverage and optimize its capital structure. Supported by robust regulatory frameworks, infrastructure modernization, and a secure, high-yield dividend, UGI offers an attractive valuation entry point with strong total return potential. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$41.33 High · most bullish analyst$42.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $40.00 Warm winter weather persistently depresses volumes across global LPG and utility service territories. Regulatory friction in Pennsylvania limits base rate increases, and delays in closing major divestitures constrain free cash flow, hindering debt reduction efforts. Base CaseCentral scenario $41.33 Matches the consensus meanUGI successfully executes its capital optimization plan, utilizing the $470 million electric division sale proceeds to reduce debt. Regulated utility investments continue to drive stable base rate growth, and the company achieves its updated FY 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $2.75 to $2.90 while maintaining its secure dividend. Bull CaseUpside scenario $42.00 Accelerated turnaround at AmeriGas combined with higher-than-expected rate case approvals in Pennsylvania drives EBIT growth above the 5-7% target. Long-term midstream exposure to renewable natural gas (RNG) and data center demand acts as an underappreciated catalyst, driving valuation multiples back toward historical averages. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |