UFP Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Devices Beta (adjusted)1.04 Intrinsic Value $254.96median of 6 methods · middle span $192-$361based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $296.82Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.3B Enterprise Value $2.4B Shares Outstanding 7.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary UFP Technologies (UFPT) is a highly specialized contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) focused on single-use and single-patient medical devices. With approximately 92% of its revenue derived from medical device customers, including 26 of the top 30 OEMs, the company is a vital link in the healthcare supply chain. Despite near-term headwinds from a mid-February 2026 ransomware attack and temporary labor inefficiencies at its AJR facility, UFPT's long-term growth trajectory remains robust. The company's strategic focus on high-growth MedTech niches (such as robotic surgery and interventional devices), capacity expansions in the Dominican Republic and APAC, and a disciplined M&A strategy position it to achieve its 3-to-5 year financial targets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$350.00 Mean target$355.00 High · most bullish analyst$360.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent labor inefficiencies and supply chain disruptions drag down gross margins below 28%. Customer inventory destocking in segments like wound care prolongs, and non-medical segment declines accelerate faster than medical program ramp-ups can offset. Cyberattack remediation costs exceed insurance coverage limits. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully navigates its CEO transition to Mitchell Rock and fully resolves the operational impacts of the February 2026 cyberattack. Newly launched medical programs ramp up in the second half of 2026, driving organic growth. Gross margins stabilize within the target 28-31% range as AJR labor inefficiencies diminish, and operating margins benefit from operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |