UFP Industries Inc Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryLumber & Wood Production Beta (adjusted)1.15 Intrinsic Value $92.19median of 6 methods · middle span $57-$96based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $77.22Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 19% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.3B Enterprise Value $3.9B Shares Outstanding 53.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date26 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary UFP Industries (UFPI) is a leading manufacturer and converter of softwood lumber and alternative materials, operating across Retail, Packaging, and Construction segments. The company possesses a highly resilient, diversified business model, a robust balance sheet with zero net debt, and a strong long-term track record of compounding margins. However, near-term performance is heavily pressured by cyclical macroeconomic headwinds, including a soft residential housing market, adverse weather, and rising operating costs (healthcare and transportation). Q1 2026 results highlighted these challenges, with net sales down 8% and EPS missing consensus estimates by nearly 20%. While the company's long-term targets (12.5% EBITDA margin, 7-10% unit growth) remain intact, near-term headwinds justify a Hold rating until demand stabilizes and cost-out initiatives take full effect. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$87.00 Mean target$102.00 High · most bullish analyst$115.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects a prolonged downturn in residential construction, persistent high interest rates, and escalating transportation and medical costs. Competitive pricing pressures in commodity lumber further compress margins, and organic unit sales continue to decline. EBITDA margins remain depressed below 7.5%, delaying the recovery of ROIC toward historical averages. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that residential construction and outdoor living markets remain soft through 2026, with demand stabilizing in late 2026 or early 2027. UFP successfully executes its remaining $25 million cost-out program, and recent high-margin acquisitions (such as John Rock and Berry Pallets) begin to contribute to unit growth. EBITDA margins gradually recover toward 8.5%-9.0% as cost pressures ease. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |