UDR Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

UDR Inc

UDRNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryREIT - Residential

Beta (adjusted)0.80

Intrinsic Value $43.55median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $33.55Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.3B

Enterprise Value $18B

Shares Outstanding 329.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

UDR's operating trajectory improved through the second quarter of 2026: leasing tracked ahead of initial expectations, quarterly Same-Store revenue and NOI increased 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively, and management raised its full-year Same-Store and FFOA guidance ranges. Occupancy remained resilient at 96.6%, but performance was uneven, with negative Same-Store NOI growth in the Southeast and Southwest. Full-year Same-Store NOI guidance remains modest at 0.00% to 1.25%, while adjusted net debt to EBITDAre was 5.6x. These conditions support a balanced Hold assessment.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets21 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$38.00

Mean target$42.07

High · most bullish analyst$46.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$38.0023%

Sunbelt softness persists or spreads, causing blended lease growth and occupancy to deteriorate and pushing Same-Store NOI below management's 2026 guidance floor. Higher expenses, a 5.6x adjusted net-debt-to-EBITDAre ratio, and a shorter weighted-average debt maturity profile reduce financial flexibility despite available liquidity and planned asset sales.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$42.0756%

Matches the consensus mean

UDR delivers within its updated 2026 ranges of $2.49 to $2.57 of FFOA per diluted share and 0.00% to 1.25% Same-Store NOI growth. Occupancy remains resilient, but expense growth and continued weakness in the Southeast and Southwest limit near-term acceleration.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$46.0021%

Leasing strength continues to exceed expectations as new apartment supply wanes, occupancy remains in the mid-96% range, and stronger West and Northeast performance broadens to weaker Sunbelt markets. Same-Store NOI finishes near or above the upper end of the updated 2026 range, while disciplined dispositions and share repurchases improve per-share outcomes.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter leasing strength exceeded management's prior expectations, supporting increases to full-year Same-Store growth and FFOA guidance.
Weighted-average Same-Store occupancy was 96.6%, while annualized resident retention reached a seasonally adjusted record of 60%.
UDR repurchased approximately 5.5 million shares for $200.3 million during and after the quarter and continued recycling capital through dispositions and planned asset sales.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter Same-Store NOI declined 2.0% in the Southeast and 2.2% in the Southwest, demonstrating material regional divergence.
Adjusted consolidated net debt to EBITDAre was 5.6x, and weighted-average debt maturity declined to 3.9 years from 4.7 years one year earlier.
The updated full-year 2026 Same-Store NOI midpoint was only 0.625%, with the published expense-growth midpoint exceeding the revenue-growth midpoint.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.