UBS Group AG Dossier - Source-backed chat

UBS Group AG

UBSGSIX Swiss Exchange

SectorFinancials

IndustryDiversified Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.89

Intrinsic Value $22.71median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $48.13Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 53% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-53%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $147.4B

Shares Outstanding 3.2B diluted

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend22 Apr 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

UBS entered the second half of 2026 with strong profitability, client flows and capital, while integration savings were close to the year-end objective. The offset is a material range of outcomes from the final Credit Suisse integration work and proposed Swiss rules that could substantially increase capital requirements for foreign subsidiaries.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$50.00

Mean target$55.03

High · most bullish analyst$62.60

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$50.0023%

Integration costs or inherited liabilities exceed expectations, client momentum weakens, or Switzerland enacts rules that materially increase capital required against foreign subsidiaries. The resulting pressure on returns and distributable capital leads UBS to reduce or defer planned shareholder distributions.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$55.0358%

Matches the consensus mean

Integration is completed broadly on schedule, cumulative gross savings reach approximately USD 13.5bn, and profitability remains consistent with the 2026 objectives while UBS preserves a CET1 ratio around 14%. Swiss capital reform remains an overhang and constrains conviction.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$62.6019%

UBS completes the integration by year-end, meets or exceeds approximately USD 13.5bn of cumulative gross savings, sustains client inflows and remains above its 2026 exit-rate return objective. Capital remains near the 14% management level, allowing the announced repurchase program and dividend growth to proceed despite regulatory deliberations.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong client momentum: Global Wealth Management generated USD 36bn of net new assets in 2Q26 and USD 73bn in 1H26, while Group invested assets reached USD 7.3trn.
Advanced integration execution: more than 90% of legacy applications were no longer in use, approximately 70% had been fully decommissioned, and cumulative gross savings reached USD 12.6bn.
Capital and distributions remained resilient: the 2Q26 CET1 ratio was 14.4%, UBS accrued for mid-teens dividend growth and continued a USD 3bn repurchase program.

Key Investment Risks

Proposed Swiss Banking Act changes could substantially increase capital requirements associated with UBS's foreign subsidiaries, potentially reducing returns and distribution capacity.
Credit Suisse integration remains exposed to operational disruption, higher-than-planned costs, unrealized synergies and inherited litigation or regulatory liabilities.
Market volatility, geopolitical stress, cyber threats, funding conditions and evolving financial-crime controls could impair activity, costs or capital resources.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.