Ubiquiti Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ubiquiti Inc

UINYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryCommunications Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.21

Intrinsic Value $503.21median of 6 methods · middle span $285-$529based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $567.53Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $34.4B

Enterprise Value $33.8B

Shares Outstanding 60.6M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend18 May 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ubiquiti ended fiscal 2026 with record fourth-quarter revenue, strong Enterprise Technology demand and substantially higher full-year revenue and earnings. The investment case is balanced by near-term component-cost and availability pressures.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$672.00

Mean target$826.00

High · most bullish analyst$980.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$672.0023%

Component inflation and supply constraints persist, pricing fails to offset higher costs, and continued Service Provider Technology weakness combines with slowing Enterprise Technology demand to pressure revenue and gross margin.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$826.0058%

Matches the consensus mean

Growth moderates from fiscal 2026's exceptional pace while Enterprise Technology remains the principal engine and gross margin stays broadly in the mid-40% range.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$980.0019%

Enterprise Technology demand remains strong, annual revenue growth stays elevated, and pricing or product-mix improvements offset component and shipping costs sufficiently to preserve gross margin near recent levels.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue reached a record $937.3 million, increasing 23.5% year over year, while full-year revenue increased 27.2% to $3.274 billion.
Enterprise Technology generated $2.972 billion of fiscal 2026 revenue versus $2.254 billion in fiscal 2025, and full-year GAAP gross margin improved to 46.2% from 43.4%.

Key Investment Risks

Ubiquiti reported higher component and shipping costs and warned that rising costs and constrained availability could pressure gross margin and limit its ability to satisfy demand.
Service Provider Technology revenue declined to $69.0 million in the fourth quarter from $79.0 million a year earlier and to $301.9 million for fiscal 2026 from $319.3 million in fiscal 2025.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.