U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)1.11 Intrinsic Value $75.40median of 5 methods · middle span $61-$94based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $85.73Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $1.4B Shares Outstanding 15.1M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) presents a balanced risk/reward profile at its current compressed valuation. While the company continues to deliver healthy top-line growth, driven by strategic acquisitions and a steady rise in patient visits, it faces persistent structural headwinds. These include high therapist wage inflation, staffing constraints, and regulatory uncertainties surrounding Medicare reimbursement rates. Management's pivot toward high-utilization hospital partnerships and cash-based programs offers long-term margin upside, but near-term profitability remains under pressure from clinic startup costs and acquisition integration expenses. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$88.00 Mean target$95.00 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged labor shortages and escalating therapist wage inflation that outpaces modest Medicare rate increases. Delays in executing hospital alliances, combined with weather disruptions or a shift toward lower-reimbursement payer mixes, squeeze operating margins further, leading to a breach of key support levels and downward revisions in full-year guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that USPH successfully rolls out its major hospital alliances (including the 60-clinic Metro partnership in New York) through the second half of 2026, driving sequential margin improvement. Top-line growth is supported by a stable 1.75% Medicare rate increase and steady patient volumes, keeping full-year Adjusted EBITDA within the guided range of $102 million to $106 million. However, elevated labor costs and clinic startup expenses will continue to cap near-term EPS expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |