U-Haul Holding Company Dossier - Source-backed chat

U-Haul Holding Company

UHALNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryRental & Leasing Services

Beta (adjusted)1.05

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $60.17Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $11.8B

Enterprise Value $18.8B

Shares Outstanding 195.5M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend18 Sep 2023

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

U-Haul's first quarter of fiscal 2027 showed continued demand growth in self-moving and self-storage, improving rental-equipment disposal results, and a larger operating footprint. These positives are balanced by lower same-store storage occupancy, continued completion of storage capacity faster than it is being filled, higher fleet maintenance and depreciation, and slightly lower trailing-twelve-month Moving and Storage adjusted EBITDA.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$73.85

Mean target$87.62

High · most bullish analyst$99.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$73.8523%

Storage additions continue to outpace absorption, same-store occupancy falls materially, and the tepid pickup-and-van resale market again produces disposal losses. Higher maintenance, depreciation, and financing costs then outweigh modest revenue growth and delay the expected return from recent capital investment.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$87.6257%

Matches the consensus mean

Self-moving and self-storage demand continues to grow modestly, but storage occupancy recovers only gradually and depreciation, maintenance, and interest burdens constrain earnings improvement.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$99.0020%

Storage rent-up accelerates while rates remain firm, allowing the large pipeline of completed and developing capacity to contribute more meaningfully. Continued growth in both one-way and in-town transactions, dealer expansion, better truck-resale execution, and lower future truck capital spending reduce depreciation and disposal pressure.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-quarter fiscal 2027 self-moving equipment rental revenue increased 2.8% year over year, with both in-town and one-way transactions and revenue increasing.
First-quarter fiscal 2027 self-storage revenue increased 6.8%, revenue per occupied foot increased 7.6%, and management reported that the pace of storage rent-up was increasing while rates held.
The operating network exceeds 25,000 locations, supported by approximately 207,600 trucks and 1,147,300 rentable storage units, providing substantial customer reach and cross-selling capacity.

Key Investment Risks

Same-store storage occupancy declined 4.5 percentage points to 88.3%, and management stated that new storage units were still being completed faster than they were being filled.
The pickup-and-van resale market remained tepid; fleet depreciation increased by $13.5 million and maintenance and repair costs increased by $4.1 million year over year in the latest quarter.
Trailing-twelve-month Moving and Storage adjusted EBITDA declined to $1.637 billion, while net debt to adjusted EBITDA increased to 4.4 times from 4.0 times a year earlier.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.