Tyson Foods Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Staples IndustryFarm Products Beta (adjusted)0.59 Intrinsic Value $54.28median of 6 methods · middle span $21-$58based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $50.53Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $17.8B Enterprise Value $23.6B Shares Outstanding 354M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tyson's third-quarter operating momentum in Chicken and Prepared Foods, $4.0 billion of reported liquidity, and $1.3-$1.7 billion fiscal 2026 free-cash-flow guidance provide meaningful support. The counterweight is a historically constrained cattle supply, a projected $500-$650 million adjusted Beef loss, and execution risk from the newly announced Beef-network restructuring. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$56.00 Mean target$68.75 High · most bullish analyst$78.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $56.0023% Cattle scarcity persists, Beef losses fall below the company's guidance floor, restructuring produces larger-than-expected disruption or cash costs, and strength in Chicken and Prepared Foods cannot prevent consolidated earnings and cash-flow deterioration. Base CaseCentral scenario $68.7556% Matches the consensus meanChicken and Prepared Foods continue to offset much, but not all, of the Beef downturn; fiscal 2026 adjusted operating income remains within the company's $2.1-$2.3 billion range; and restructuring proceeds without a liquidity breach. Bull CaseUpside scenario $78.0021% Chicken and Prepared Foods sustain their favorable performance, consolidated adjusted operating income reaches the upper end of the $2.1-$2.3 billion fiscal 2026 range, free cash flow approaches the upper end of guidance, and the Beef restructuring delivers a more efficient network without materially impairing cattle throughput. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |