Tyra Biosciences Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Tyra Biosciences Inc

TYRANASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.83

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $21.87Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.5B

Enterprise Value $1.4B

Shares Outstanding 64M diluted

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Tyra Biosciences is a highly promising clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company leveraging its proprietary SNÅP platform to design next-generation, isoform-selective FGFR inhibitors. The company's lead candidate, dabogratinib (TYRA-300), is designed to selectively target FGFR3 while sparing FGFR1, FGFR2, and FGFR4, thereby avoiding the severe off-target toxicities (such as hyperphosphatemia and ocular toxicities) that limit first-generation pan-FGFR inhibitors like erdafitinib. With a robust cash position of $383.5 million providing a runway into the second half of 2028, Tyra is well-capitalized to advance its 'dabogratinib 3x3' strategy across three high-value indications: low-grade upper tract urothelial carcinoma (LG-UTUC), intermediate-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (IR NMIBC), and pediatric achondroplasia. Upcoming clinical readouts in late 2026 represent major near-term catalysts that could validate the platform's selectivity and drive significant valuation upside.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$39.00

Mean target$50.82

High · most bullish analyst$59.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$39.0010%

SURF302 trial data in August 2026 shows unexpected off-target toxicities (e.g., hyperphosphatemia or liver enzyme elevations) or a complete response rate below 50%, undermining the selectivity thesis of the SNÅP platform. BEACH301 pediatric trial experiences enrollment delays or safety concerns, leading to a significant contraction in the stock's valuation multiples.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$50.8260%

Matches the consensus mean

Dabogratinib demonstrates competitive efficacy (complete response rate of 65-70%) in the SURF302 trial with manageable, mild-to-moderate toxicities that compare favorably to pan-FGFR inhibitors. BEACH301 pediatric achondroplasia safety sentinel data in Q4 2026 confirms a wide therapeutic window, supporting continued Phase 2 development. The company's cash runway remains sufficient to reach pivotal milestones.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$59.0030%

Dabogratinib delivers a complete response rate exceeding 75% in the SURF302 trial in August 2026 with a clean safety profile (no grade 3 hyperphosphatemia or severe ocular toxicities). This validates the FGFR3-selectivity thesis, positioning the drug as a potential multi-billion dollar blockbuster across both oncology and rare skeletal dysplasias (achondroplasia). Rapid registrational progress in LG-UTUC supports an NDA submission by late 2027.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Differentiated Selectivity: Dabogratinib's precise targeting of FGFR3 avoids the dose-limiting toxicities of pan-FGFR inhibitors, enabling continuous target engagement and superior tolerability.
Robust Balance Sheet: $383.5 million in cash and marketable securities as of Q1 2026 provides a solid runway into H2 2028, mitigating near-term dilution risk.
High-Value Indications: The '3x3' strategy targets blockbuster opportunities in underserved markets, including early-stage bladder cancers and pediatric achondroplasia.

Key Investment Risks

Clinical Trial Risk: Heavy reliance on a single lead asset (dabogratinib) across multiple indications; negative data in any trial could severely impact valuation.
Development Delays: Potential bottlenecks in pediatric patient enrollment for the BEACH301 achondroplasia trial.
Competitive Landscape: Intense competition from established biopharmaceutical players developing targeted oncology and rare disease therapies.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of dabogratinib to achieve a complete response rate of at least 55-60% in the SURF302 trial.
Emergence of severe, systemic class-effect toxicities (such as severe hyperphosphatemia or retinal detachment) in clinical trials.
Regulatory holds or significant clinical development delays imposed by the FDA on the BEACH301 or SURF303 programs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.