Tyler Technologies Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySoftware - Application Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $476.91median of 6 methods · middle span $395-$736based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $318.60Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 50% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13B Enterprise Value $12.7B Shares Outstanding 41.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jan 1990 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tyler's operating evidence remains favorable: second-quarter 2026 SaaS revenue increased 21.7%, extending its run of at least 20% SaaS growth to 22 consecutive quarters, while recurring revenue represented 86.7% of revenue and annualized recurring revenue reached $2.24 billion. The principal execution test is whether cloud conversions and cross-selling can continue to more than offset declining maintenance revenue while transaction growth remains comparatively modest. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$335.00 Mean target$426.64 High · most bullish analyst$525.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $335.0020% SaaS growth falls below 20% for multiple quarters, recurring revenue drops below 85% of total revenue, or maintenance erosion outpaces cloud conversion gains. Slower transaction growth or acquisition-integration demands could then reduce the expected benefit from Tyler's cloud and platform strategy. Base CaseCentral scenario $426.6455% Matches the consensus meanSaaS growth moderates but remains near the 20% threshold, recurring revenue stays in the mid-80% range or better, and annualized recurring revenue continues expanding. Maintenance declines are substantially offset by cloud subscriptions, while transaction growth remains positive but uneven. Bull CaseUpside scenario $525.0025% SaaS growth remains at or above 20%, record booking momentum converts into durable recurring revenue, and Tyler advances toward its goal of converting more than 85% of maintenance revenue to SaaS by 2030. Greater cross-selling and transaction-platform adoption would reinforce recurring growth and operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |