TXO Partners LP Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production Beta (adjusted)0.34 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $13.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $765.2M Enterprise Value $927.8M Shares Outstanding 59.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend15 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) operates as a yield-oriented master limited partnership (MLP) focused on the acquisition, development, and exploitation of conventional, low-decline oil and natural gas properties. Unlike high-growth shale drillers, TXO targets mature assets (primarily in the Permian, San Juan, and Williston Basins) where the initial steep production decline has already occurred, resulting in highly predictable cash flows. The partnership's aggressive acquisition strategy, highlighted by the $350 million White Rock Energy transaction, significantly expands its asset base. While recent hedging losses and elevated capital expenditures have pressured GAAP earnings, TXO's strong operating cash flow, low base decline rate (~11%), and high insider ownership (~30%) support a compelling long-term income and capital appreciation thesis as recent investments mature. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$19.00 Mean target$19.67 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $10.0020% Sustained weakness in WTI oil and Henry Hub natural gas prices severely compresses operating margins. High capital expenditures continue to consume operating cash flow, resulting in persistent negative free cash flow. The partnership is forced to cut its variable distribution to preserve liquidity, triggering negative investor sentiment and downward pressure on the unit price. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.5050% TXO successfully integrates the White Rock Energy assets and maintains stable average daily production of approximately 32,000 Boe/d. Discretionary development capex is kept near the budgeted $70 million, supporting positive operating cash flows. The partnership manages its leverage within the target Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDAX range of 1.0x to 2.0x, and distributions stabilize, supporting a moderate valuation recovery. Bull CaseUpside scenario $22.0030% Recent acquisitions in the Williston and San Juan Basins deliver higher-than-expected production volumes, and commodity prices recover. Discretionary development costs remain optimized at or below the $70 million budget, driving substantial free cash flow. Strong cash generation allows the partnership to comfortably cover its variable distributions, leading to an expansion of the quarterly payout and driving the unit price toward the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |