TXNM Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Electric Beta (adjusted)0.45 Intrinsic Value $42.26median of 6 methods · middle span $37-$51based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $58.53Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 28% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.4B Enterprise Value $11.9B Shares Outstanding 103M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TXNM Energy is currently trading near its 52-week high, heavily anchored by its pending $11.5 billion ($61.25 per share) all-cash acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure. While the transaction has cleared major federal hurdles including FERC and Texas regulatory approvals, it faces significant regulatory friction in New Mexico. Specifically, NMPRC hearing examiners have recommended unwinding a prior $400 million stock sale and imposing penalties, introducing potential delays or complications. Given that the stock trades at a narrow arbitrage spread to the $61.25 buyout price, the risk-reward profile is balanced, making a Hold recommendation appropriate. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$59.00 Mean target$60.70 High · most bullish analyst$61.25 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $50.85 The Blackstone acquisition fails or is abandoned due to insurmountable regulatory opposition from New Mexico regulators or political pushback. The stock falls back to its unaffected fundamental valuation, pressured by elevated interest rates and capital expenditure execution risks. Base CaseCentral scenario $60.70 Matches the consensus meanThe transaction remains on track for completion in late 2026, but faces minor delays due to the NMPRC investigation. The stock continues to trade sideways, tightly bound to the merger arbitrage floor near the $61.25 acquisition price. Bull CaseUpside scenario $61.25 The acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure proceeds smoothly to a close in late 2026 at the full $61.25 cash offer price, resolving New Mexico regulatory hurdles without structural concessions. Long-term, the utility benefits from surging electricity demand driven by AI data centers and grid modernization across Texas and New Mexico. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |