Twist Bioscience Corp Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDiagnostics & Research Beta (adjusted)1.77 Intrinsic Value $52.57median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $193.24Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 73% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-73%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $12.8B Enterprise Value $12.7B Shares Outstanding 61.9M diluted Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Twist Bioscience is a structural cost leader in the synthetic biology tools market, leveraging its proprietary silicon-based DNA synthesis platform to reduce reagent usage by up to 99.8% compared to traditional methods. The company is experiencing robust demand driven by AI-enabled drug discovery and next-generation sequencing (NGS) applications. With gross margins expanding toward 52% and a clear path to adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q4 Fiscal 2026, Twist represents a highly attractive growth play in the biotechnology tools sector. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$36.00 Mean target$105.30 High · most bullish analyst$120.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $36.0015% A slowdown in biotech funding or a delay in clinical assay transitions by major customers creates an air pocket in NGS demand. Increased competitive pressure in enzymatic synthesis or rising R&D costs delays the path to adjusted EBITDA breakeven beyond Fiscal 2026, leading to continued cash burn. Base CaseCentral scenario $105.3060% Matches the consensus meanTwist delivers on its raised Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $442M to $447M, representing 17% to 19% YoY growth. The company successfully achieves adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q4 Fiscal 2026, supported by sequential operating expense improvements of approximately $6M following strategic cost initiatives and headcount reductions. Bull CaseUpside scenario $120.0025% AI-driven drug discovery partnerships (such as the Amazon Web Services wet lab partnership) scale rapidly, driving therapeutics segment growth above 50% YoY. NGS target enrichment adoption accelerates in clinical oncology and minimal residual disease (MRD) testing, pushing gross margins past 55% and achieving full GAAP profitability ahead of schedule. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |