Twin Disc Incorporated Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryConstruction & Farm Machinery & Heavy Trucks Beta (adjusted)0.78 Intrinsic Value $39.97median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$66based on filings through 27 Mar 2026 Market Price $26.20Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 53% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+53%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $380.9M Enterprise Value $394.6M Shares Outstanding 14.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Twin Disc is executing a successful operational turnaround driven by robust demand in its Marine and Propulsion Systems segment, high-margin defense program acceleration, and strategic integration of the Kobelt acquisition. Despite a minor EPS miss in Q3 2026, the company demonstrated significant operating leverage with gross margins expanding to 28.1% and EBITDA surging 135% year-over-year. Backed by a record six-month backlog of $179.5 million and a strong defense pipeline, Twin Disc is well-positioned to sustain its upward momentum and drive long-term shareholder value. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$30.00 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential headwinds from cyclical downturns in commercial marine or oil and gas end markets, supply chain disruptions, or integration delays with Kobelt that pressure cash flows and elevate net debt. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes continued execution of the record backlog, steady integration of Kobelt, and successful expansion of the Finland facility to capture defense demand. Operating margins are expected to stabilize near 6-7% with revenue growing at a high single-digit rate. Bull CaseUpside scenario Twin Disc's bull case is driven by strong demand in marine and propulsion systems (particularly for Veth products and hybrid/electric solutions), accelerating defense orders with an expanding pipeline across the U.S. and Europe that has boosted its six-month backlog to $179.5 million, and strategic acquisitions like Kobelt and Cobalt that expand its product portfolio and geographic reach. Additionally, its inclusion in major Russell indexes (Russell 2000 and 3000) in June 2026 enhances stock liquidity and visibility. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |