Tvardi Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Tvardi Therapeutics Inc

TVRDNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.51

Intrinsic Value

No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference.

Market Price $1.25Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $16.7M

Enterprise Value $1.1M

Shares Outstanding 13.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Tvardi Therapeutics is at a critical operational and clinical juncture. Following its April 2025 merger with Cara Therapeutics, the company transitioned to a Nasdaq-listed public entity (TVRD) focused on developing oral small molecule inhibitors of STAT3. While STAT3 is a highly validated target in oncology and inflammatory diseases, directly inhibiting it has historically faced severe toxicity hurdles. Tvardi's lead asset, TTI-101, failed its primary endpoints in the Phase 2 REVERT IPF trial, shifting investor focus to its next-generation prodrug, TTI-109, and the ongoing Phase 1b/2 REVERT LIVER CANCER trial of TTI-101. With a cash balance of $25.0 million as of March 31, 2026, and a runway extending only into Q4 2026, the company faces significant binary clinical risk. Near-term data readouts for TTI-109 in June 2026 and TTI-101 in H2 2026 are existential catalysts that will dictate the company's survival and ability to raise capital.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$3.00

Mean target$8.50

High · most bullish analyst$13.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case assumes TTI-109 healthy volunteer data reveals unexpected safety or tolerability issues, or fails to show a superior prodrug profile. Additionally, the TTI-101 HCC trial fails to show sufficient efficacy or is delayed further, exhausting the company's cash runway by Q4 2026 and forcing highly dilutive equity financing or restructuring.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes that TTI-109 demonstrates acceptable safety, tolerability, and linear pharmacokinetics in healthy volunteers, confirming its prodrug design to mitigate gastrointestinal toxicities. It also assumes that the Phase 1b/2 REVERT LIVER CANCER trial of TTI-101 in HCC shows clinically meaningful activity, allowing the company to leverage its $200M shelf or $12.5M ATM facility to extend its cash runway beyond Q4 2026.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

TTI-101 has strong potential to be a first-in-class drug by targeting the novel STAT3 pathway, which is implicated in the growth and survival of many cancers. Success in upcoming Phase 2 trials could lead to a Breakthrough Therapy Designation, an accelerated development path, and a highly lucrative partnership deal with a major pharmaceutical company.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-in-class oral small molecule STAT3 inhibitors targeting a highly validated pathway in oncology and fibrosis.
TTI-109 prodrug design potentially addresses gastrointestinal toxicities associated with first-generation inhibitors.
Near-term binary catalysts (TTI-109 healthy volunteer data in June 2026 and TTI-101 HCC data in H2 2026) provide clear valuation inflection points.

Key Investment Risks

Extremely tight cash runway extending only into Q4 2026, presenting high risk of near-term equity dilution.
High clinical failure rate historically associated with direct STAT3 inhibition.
Lead asset TTI-101 already failed its primary endpoints in the Phase 2 REVERT IPF trial, increasing reliance on the unproven TTI-109 prodrug.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of TTI-109 to show acceptable safety or tolerability in the healthy volunteer study.
Negative or inconclusive topline results from the Phase 1b/2 REVERT LIVER CANCER trial of TTI-101 in HCC.
Inability to secure additional financing or strategic partnerships before the cash runway is exhausted in Q4 2026.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.